While no one can predict the future, most strategists can observe existing patterns to deduce its logical next steps. In this context, "logical" is defined not as certainty but rather as probability, especially when approached with sufficient intention and conviction. For the final dispatch of Your Majesty's Newsletter (10 Things), I have outlined three probable developments for 2024 in the areas of business, culture, and technology. These predictions are not just an exercise in expanding my strategic thinking but also a creative way to set intentions for my advisory work in the new year.
1. Formulaic content fatigue will prompt its counter-development
Algorithmic recommendations, coupled with the “soon” widespread adoption of AI-generated content, intensify content and media fatigue. Despite our phones taking up so much of our attention, there is a growing resentment towards this constant attachment. In 2024, the well-established TikTokified content will persist across all media, attempting to influence consumers through the unpolished language of authenticity.
However, historical patterns suggest that the mainstream rise of something often indicates the underdevelopment of its counter-development. In the realm of content, culturally savvy and courageous brands or creators will begin to explore new or revisit old ways to tell their stories, against the grain of TikTok, Reels, and generative AI.
2. Cost-driven strategies will no longer cut it
In anticipation of market headwinds, cost-driven strategies (such as mass layoffs) have prevailed in the last quarter of 2023. This sets the stage for a market filled with talent and entrepreneurs, poised to make their next move. Similar to 2008, 2024 could mark the beginning of a new class of innovators introducing fresh—more culturally relevant—solutions to the market.
Post layoffs, corporations will need to seriously consider the balance of cost-reduction and value-creation strategies to avoid slimming down to obsolescence. For instance, the adoption of AI is often associated with increased efficiency—and therefore reduced cost. Winning businesses in 2024 will channel those saved budgets towards creating new values for their customers rather than mere optimization of their balance sheet.
3. AI will recenter the importance of data experience design
In the 2010s, when performance marketing took the spotlight, meticulous segmentation and highly targeted ads were in vogue. However, years later, many brands, including Airbnb and Adidas, reverted to traditional mass marketing, sobering up from the elusive promise of personalized conversion. Personalization then retreated into the realms of product and CRM, assuming a lower-funnel position.
This year, the seismic advancement of AI and the introduction of OpenAI GPTs rekindle the personalization conversation, now often in the context of personalized commerce. In 2024, businesses and brands will explore how to turn their proprietary data into consumer-facing experiences, enriching the buying and loyalty journey. More than ever, data scientists, product designers, and system architects will collaborate, developing an ecosystem that ethically collects data to benefit users at an individual level, as well as enhancing the business’s overall performance.